Geological Risk Calculation through Probability of Success (PoS), Applied to Radioactive Waste Disposal in Deep Wells: A Conceptual Study in the Pre-Neogene Basement in the Northern Croatia

Authors: Malvić, Tomislav*; Veinović, Želimir; Pimenta Dinis, Maria Alzira; Velić, Josipa; Sremac, Jasenka; Ivšinović, Josip; Bošnjak, Marija; Barudžija, Uroš; Pedrosa e Sousa, Hélder Fernando

Company: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, Pierottijeva 6, Zagreb, HR


The basic principles of geological risk calculation through probability of success (PoS) are mostly applied to numerical estimation of additional hydrocarbon existence in proven reservoirs or potential hydrocarbon discoveries in selected geological regional subsurface volumes. Such methodology has been widely developed in the last decades in the Croatian subsurface—mostly in the Croatian Pannonian Basin System (CPBS). As the robustness of this methodology is very high, it was also modified to estimate different process in the subsurface lithologies. The most recent modification is presented to be applied to geological risk calculation, intending to assess the safety of geological environment storage in deep wells, where spent nuclear fuel (SPN) would be disposed. For the first time, such conceptual study encompassed the magmatic and metamorphic rocks in the pre-Neogene basement of the CPBS, intended to be used for such purpose. Regionally distributed lithologies are considered in order to detect the safest ones.